Footy Tragic
Sometimes It Hurts
Colin Sylvia – Melbourne ($315,000, MID/FWD, Break even: 68, price drop this season: $103,700)
This one might hurt the 12,393 who have endured his 67 average over the last five games, especially when many would’ve traded him in after he opened the season with a 125 and 112. Ouch, this one will particularly hurt those that traded him in after two games – he scored 237 points in those first two games and 335 in the five games. If you take out his 107 in that period he hasn’t scored over 70.
It’s not the most glowing preamble, but what it does mean is that right now Sylvia is ridiculous value, because he’s not as bad a player as his recent form suggests.
I’m also not going to come on here and say that’s he’s a must buy just because he’s cheap. For a start, he is easily tagged out of games, which explains a lot of his low scores this year.
Melbourne are a better team now, and this oddly seems to be negatively affecting Sylvia. Now that they’re doing better, teams need to work on shutting down their damaging players, so Sylvia is copping a bit more serious attention than he has in the past. His awesome form in his first two games probably made a few teams stand up and notice how important he can be to Melbourne if he’s up and going.
With Sylvia though, you’re definitely getting value. He’s priced at about 70, and yes, while he has scored less than 70 four times this year, I can’t see him being this horrible. Even without finding form he should still be able to average about 80 from here on in. He had a cracking pre-season until his broken jaw, so his fitness base should be fine.
For $315K it wouldn’t be a terrible roll of the dice for someone who could turn out to be a premium. Immediately Melbourne don’t have a cracking fixture, but his last month of the season is pretty favourable DT wise (Richmond, Hawthorn, Port, North) so he could be a handy asset to have at the end of the year.
Austin Wonaeamirri – Melbourne ($138,700, FWD, Break even: 7)
First two games: 47 vs. Port (W), 51 vs. Geelong (L) = 49 avg.
Everyone’s favourite cult figure from 2008 has remarkably strung together two consecutive games. Back then he averaged 62.5, so he wasn’t too bad as a bench option. You could probably expect similar scoring from him this year too, but the big question is whether or not his body is up to it. He has been dogged by injuries for the last 18 months. It’s great to see him back out there, but his body has proved to be pretty frail. Scoring potential and job security wise, he’s a great option…but it’s his durability that worries me.
Nathan O’Keefe – North Melbourne ($94,500, FWD, Break even: -41)
First two games: 58 vs. Bulldogs (L), 55 vs. Freo (L) = 56.5 avg.
Last week I was thinking it’ll only be a matter of time before O’Keefe loses his spot in the Roos team, considering they named Petrie, Hale and McIntosh. Petrie going down with a six week injury again might be a good thing for O’Keefe, but even if he gets picked this week he’ll have Aaron Edwards and Josh Smith breathing down his neck from the VFL. I quite liked his debut game against the Bulldogs. He generated a few shots, but couldn’t convert – it’s not like Smith will threaten him with remarkable conversion (2.7 in his nine game career) but I couldn’t recommend O’Keefe with any great enthusiasm. He’s a very good mark, but I’m not sure that he has enough to his game for him to hold onto a spot (or score particularly well) at this stage of his career.
Daniel Stewart – Port Adelaide ($89,500, FWD, Break even: -5)
First two games: 33 vs. Geelong (W), 40 vs. Richmond (L) = 36.5 avg.
Nothing to suggest he would score well or keep his spot in Port’s team. Meh.
Rhys Stanley – St.Kilda ($94,500, RUC, Break even: -5)
First two games: 44 vs. West Cost (W), 33 vs. Adelaide (W) = 38.5 avg.
He hasn’t scored that well, but Stanley isn’t going too bad so far. With Kosi half way between anonymous and literally absent, Stanley provides an athletic tall target for the Saints. I feel safer having picked up Skipper last week, because I like his job security better, but I think the Saints will persist with Stanley for a bit. For a ruck bench, you’re not exactly shooting for the stars with scoring potential, so if he can get out there and he’s on your team, it’s a win. Wouldn’t be the worst option if you missed Skipper last week.
Campbell Heath – Sydney ($94,500, BAC, Break even: -47)
First two games: 71 vs. Freo (L), 48 vs. Hawthorn (L) = 59.5 avg.
Heath was really promising in his first game and scored a lovely 71. He looked a bit more shaky in his second game and made a couple of silly decisions. He might keep his spot for a little while, but I think he’s just keeping Craig Bolton’s seat warm. If he can last that long then he’ll make a bit of cash, but if you’re a trading in a rookie at this stage you shouldn’t be looking to trade him out – you’re looking for bench coverage right now. Heath is a decent option and I’d go for him if I needed to free up some cash, but I’d be fully aware that I’m probably leaving myself exposed with back coverage.

36 Comments on Sometimes It Hurts
I have two, maybe three, forward upgrades to go. Thoughts on Ziebell -> Sylvia? I’m not convinced myself, but I could do it with one trade. My other two targets are Pavlich and Reiwoldt when he returns.
My love for Colin Sylvia is very much on the record. When in form he is clearly Melbourne’s best player.
We would hear a lot more about him if he played for Geelong or Collingwood.
Greg, not sure why you’d be after Riewoldt. That’s very late in the year for your last upgrade, he has a break even of 170 and a score of 147 to wash out of his rolling average two weeks after his return (so he’ll be at his basement about three weeks after a Round 18ish return).
On top of that, this is a very serious injury that you can’t expect him to come back well from, especially someone of his size and with the amount of running that makes him a DT star. To cater for what his body will be capable of, I reckon he’ll play a different (deeper) role when he comes back, which won’t be as conducive to scoring anyway.
Matthew Lloyd had a very serious hamstring injury during his career (his was off the bone, so I think a bit more severe than Roo’s) and from his experience he has said he doesn’t expect to see the best of Roo at the end of this year (and Lloyd didn’t even cover near the territory Roo does).
What’s the go with Luke Shuey, now listed as 1-2 weeks (AGAIN!!) this time with a virus!!?
Roo is done for 2010 dreamteam wise. He will be a must have in 2011 though as his average will be way down by the end of this year.
I think you guys are a little quick to dismiss Stewart. Granted he is a tall forward which traditionally doesn’t score well, but lets look at his 2 games a little closer.
Game 1 V Geelong at skilled. the toughtest game in the AFL. His side was belted by 100 points. fair to say that he was starved of opportunities.
Game 2, sure it was against a lowly side in richmond, but did you see the game? To say it was wet is a little understatement and a day not suited to tall forwards.
Wont be a high scorer, but i would expect a 50 avg from him which could be handy cover and he is basement price and if you are looking for a downgrade target.
I really feel for the blokes that have held onto Shuey. By this stage he seems like someone you just need to stick it out with. His horrible luck on the injury front was known before this year, but this has been ridiculous. Hopefully he can get another game or two soon to actually be worth trading out.
Roo will be eligible for a discount next year (based on previous years rules). It’s something like players that play less than seven games in a season with an average above a certain amount. Roo comfortably falls into both categories.
Chad, I wouldn’t sell the other two guys into the call on Stewart – it was all me. Not sure what Toby and Tuney think of him, to be honest. I recognise that both games did not suit him, but I still don’t see him as a good downgrade target. You would know better than me, but how safe is his job?
Dan, i know you generally focus your Wednesday articles on kids that are set for a price rise after their 2 games. But do you have any early thoughts on Gysberts as a downgrade option.
I try not to get too carried away in the hype of one games performance, but 26 touches and 8 marks in the wet against Geelong AT Skilled, WHILST getting flogged by 9 goals isn’t anything to be ashamed of.
So is it a week too soon for him to be a downgrade option, especially with Scully and Trengove likely to be back?
@Wilson – while Gysberts numbers were great, he wasn’t considered worthy of a single vote by either coach and it was said (on SEN by I can’t remember who!) the reason he got so much of it was that Geelong totally ignored him, he was left without an opponent to do as he pleased, hence the (relatively) high possessions for a first-gamer.
However having said all that, I’ve had my eye on him since the preseason and will be watching very closely this week to see how he goes with Scully and Trengove back in the side (assuming they are both rested enough after their 1 week out).
Talking of Melbourne rookies, does anyone know when Tapscott might debut – when he injured himself pre-season they were talking a mid-year debut?
Gysberts is as good an option as you could hope for, especially considering I don’t see a whole heap on the horizon in the coming weeks. I wouldn’t be afraid to bring him in this week if my team required it (in SC I’ll probably get him because I have Howlett and there’s a chance he’ll get dropped for Welsh).
Overall I’m not a massive fan of Gysberts, but I rated his game on the weekend and from all reports they love him down at Melbourne, so he can hopefully stick around. He did burn it a bit, but he wasn’t awe struck against the Cats.
Juzz, injury update estimates Tapscott out until about round 14. When he had surgery to repair the cartilage in his hip they were talking around 8 weeks or so but obviously his recovery has not been as quick as first thought. I think he tore it on a sprinkler head or something from memory. From my understanding is a Chapman/Higgins type player, so should be a good dreamteamer.
I wonder how well Gysberts will score when Trengove and Scully are injected into the midfield rotations. Guess we will see this week.
Shuey has bloody glandular fever. If it’s anything like the Glandual fever I know and love that’s pretty much season over.
http://www.watoday.com.au/afl/afl-news/glandular-fever-scare-rocks-the-eagles-20100602-wxez.html
@ Leatherhed – Shuey has glandular fever… :-(
@ Leatherhed – and injury prone too if he’s like Chapman/Higgins! lol But seriously, thanks for the info update on Tapscott :-) Sounds like he might be well on the radar for DT 2011.
so Shuey. what to do now?
Gyberts is the option. They reckon he’s got a lot of James Hird about him.
I think you’re right Bighughie, there are bugger all midfield options around unfortunately and Gysberts does look fairly promising.
Shuey’s 1-2 week injuries (for the last 7 weeks!), and now with glandular fever, Im starting to think enough is enough.
The title of this page is rather appropriate to all Shuey owners.
Thanks for your thoughts on Gysberts guys. I guess there really isn’t much else in the way of rookie mids coming thru, and especially ones with any sort of promising job security.
Martin would probably be the only one guaranteed to play out the year as a safe bench option. But i need to generate some from somewhere, and he has more or less peaked i imagine..
The other option i’ve been toying with is a downgrade to that Dylan McNeil from Sydney, purely for his DP tag, so i can switch him around to suit. Even though he probably won’t get a game.
I must admit, I avoided Shuey because he has had a shocking run with his body in the past. I took him in SC, but traded him out as soon as I heard he was out injured. I just couldn’t trust his body. Hope he comes good, because he’s got a fantastic inside and outside game.
Wilson,
Why would you choose Dylan McNeil from Sydney when he is very unlikely to play? He is not a cash cow, nor a quality back up option, so why pick him??
The fact that he holds dual position status is irrelevant.
Myself, I’m praying for Lewis Stevenson to get back. V. Handy indeed.
It is probably worth emphasising one of Dan’s points in this article – the need to trade rookies not only for scoring potential, but at this time of year, for job security. Many many teams suffer towards the end of year due to no playing rookies on their benches. Whist trading a rookie in at this stage of the year, yes the cash may be handy, but you don’t want a player just to play a couple of games and go back to the twos. Ideally, on every line you would like a player who will play every game, even if he only averages 50. It can be tempting to trade in a rookie, just because it gives your bank account a quick boost. But if his non-playing in the finals time means that you get left with a donut when one of your players goes down, then this is a very big issue. Essentially, don’t just think there are 22 players in your team – you need to look at your full squad of 30 if you want to be any sort of force come finals time.
I could not have put it better myself Toby! Never underestimate the benefit of having quality cover.
As the old saying goes: “Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked”.
@Ben – I’ve never heard that saying, but it’s very apt in that context! lol
That’s deep Ben. Haha.
Not sure if im sold on this idea personally, but I think Wilson’s argument is based on getting McNeil in the midfield, in order to try and exploit the DP rule in order to use premium forwards such as Sylvia, Goodes, etc to cover any midfield injuries.
eg Ablett gets rested. You transfer McNeil to the fwd bench, and Sylvia into the midfield in Ablett’s position. Then you cover the forward line with a Rockliff etc.
This way there is potentially less money tied up on the bench.
Dan, LeatherHed has it in a nutshell.
Once again, just an idea and i probably won’t do it, but i just figured it would be a cheap way to exploit him for his DP status if need be, rather than relying on rookies with no job security.
Wilson, to be honest, i have actually considered this move a couple of weeks ago, however i toyed with Winmar instead. In practice it could actually be a good idea and could essentially save you from trading a premium. However, my final decision was that i would wait to do it IF i needed to do it. e.g. If Ablett goes down in round 19, rather than trading out Ablett, i would bring in a DP midfielder to do the appropriate swap. It means i will still have Ablett for the remaining rounds and will not have missed out in my final. The issue of doing this move this early is that you are potentially burning a trade to cover something which may actually never happen. There will be no difference between doing it now, or potentially waiting until round 19 when you actually need it. Also, you are trading in a player who is very unlikely to play a game. Simply having one of these players in your team could be costly – the general rule of thumb would want 30 players playing in finals (as unlikely as this is), but writing off a player in either your midfield or up forward is costly. Essentially, you end up burning a trade for a player who won’t play, just in case one of your premiums is injured later in the year…
In theory, there is actually a lot of merit to it – and as i said, i have considered it – but i feel it best waiting until it actually becomes necessary.
Hope this helps!
Having mcniel on your bench as opposed to a gysberts(or other playing rookie) would not have saved you a donut for the barlow situation on the weekend. I can see te benefit but if given the choice I would choose a playing rookie over a nonplaying dpp one.
Hi Guys,
With a finished defence (calling waters a keeper) with Bower back into the Carlton side(assuming), i have webberley and simon white(injured 2-3 weeks) on the bench. Need some cash to complete my forward line, is it worth the punt on relatively poor job security in trading white to heath/another rookie defender on the verge of a price rise?
Cheers
Another thing to note with the dpp is if you move out a fwd to MIDs you still need a bench player from your forwards to fill in, and this will likely be A rookie (nat okeefe, watts or wonna are examples), and in general rookie mids score better than rookie forwards. A little bit of robbing Peter to pay Paul. There have been exceptions cause I know I would rather have nat fyfe starting over Martin but come finals time when your out of trades and GAJ goes down would you rather start gumby/hitchcok in your forwards or Martin/bastinac/trengove(yes some people are keeping him as all year bench cover)
Hmmm.. your comment about Waters being a keeper has got me thinking now Murph. As silly as it might sound to some i had planned to offload him this week for Goddard because i always figured him as an upgrade since the start of the year, but he has been pretty serviceable thus far i guess.
I’d like to get an idea on what most are thinking of doing with him? He is a little Heath Shaw-ish with his scoring, which bothers me.
Wilson, Waters is a keeper for me…at least for the moment he is. Come finals time, if I have a trade available I might look to upgrade him. But overall I’m pretty happy with an 80 average out of him, especially considering what I paid for him.
Wilson, that was Ben arguing against your McNeil idea. I’m the big fan of the DP system, remember? ;)
I can see the logic behind it, essentially it gives you flexibility to shuffle a greater combination of scorers. I don’t know about it as a theory to cover donuts – I think it’s playing with fire, but if you’re taking a risk purely to maximise points gained it is a solid idea.
Whoops, sorry Dan! I think it must be the similar looking and sounding names on the post after i skimmed through. Perhaps you guys can change your footytragic avatars to be more individual so idiots like me don’t get muddled so easily? Different coloured footballs perhaps? ie. You could have a Blue, Red and White one, Toby – a Black, Red and White, etc?
Haha :)
Great suggestion about the coloured footys Wilson! We’ll get our technical man onto that!!
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