Bargain player

Robert Murphy – Western Bulldogs ($298,600, FWD, Break even: 52, Price drop this season: $52,200)

AFL Rd 6 - Bulldogs v Saints

The obvious target for this article would be Ryan Hargrave, but there’s already been plenty of discussion about him this week, so there’s no point in me bleating out a whole bunch of stats you probably already know about him.

Instead, I’m going to look at the other end of the ground, to his teammate Robert Murphy. At the start of the year I thought the man affectionately known as Bob was good value. He was the same price as Buddy though, so I passed on him and after Round 2 I was cursing myself as Bob netted scores of 111 and 93, but he has been a little quiet since then.

Remarkably he’s actually dipped down to a little under $300K, largely due to a score of 33 against Brisbane. He was struggling to hold marks for a couple of weeks there and this was adversely affecting his score. It should be noted that it was extremely slippery up in Brisbane though and everyone was dropping simple marks that night!

I like the look of his next month too, so it’s fair to say this will be as low as his price will get. He’s got Melbourne this week and you may look at the stats and see an ugly 36 as his last score against them, but that was 36 points in the first 20 minutes of the game before he did his hammy. He was on track for a big one that day!

After that the Dogs have Sydney, North and Essendon. He didn’t play against Sydney last year, but scored 91, 62 and 102 against them in three games in 2008 (the 102 being a final). His average against North in his last three against them is 94.7. Essendon are a young team, who famously cop a lot of criticism for not having much of a defensive game – sounds sweet for a forward, especially one that averages 98.8 against them since 2002!

In the past the concern has been his durability, but all the talk coming out of Whitten Oval in the pre-season is that his body is as good as it’s ever been. While there are never any guarantees with even the most durable player, I must say, he is moving very well and looking fit, so I’m less concerned about this than in past years with him.

On the bubble

Nat Fyfe – Fremantle ($89,500, FWD, Break even: -60)

First two games: 66 vs. Richmond (W), 60 vs. West Coast (W) = 63 avg.

I must admit I haven’t seen Freo over the last two weeks, but I have seen a bit of Fyfe before and he looks a gem. I’m a little surprised he’s having an impact in his first year, given that he’s a key forward/third tall type, but with such a skinny frame at his young age.

Contested marking is a real feature of his game and it sounds like he’s been pulling a few down. Without having seen Freo’s last fortnight, I can’t comment too closely on his job security, but all of the reports have been pretty good and it’s not like Ryan Murphy is banging down the door to take that role off him. Could be a good cash cow, but in the forward line that might not be overly necessary after I’m sure many of us just jumped on one or both of Rocky and Pods.

Ben Cunnington – North Melbourne ($141,500, MID, Break even: 21)

First two games: 48 vs. Hawthorn (W), 36 vs. Melbourne (W) = 42 avg.

The bloke that Toby has been raving about all year has been pretty disappointing in his first couple of games (to be fair to Toby, I’m pretty keen on this bloke too). He had a slightly interrupted pre-season and seems to be struggling with the pace of AFL after only having two games in the VFL before making his debut.

He’s a very tough and hard player and I believe it’s well worth the Roos persisting with him in the seniors. It’ll be a bit awkward if he is named to play this week. He’s priced quite highly, being that he was the #5 pick at last year’s National Draft and has only scored modestly so far. His exposed form isn’t really enough to pick him on, so you’d be backing him in to get it together and really break out over the next month.

With a break even of 21, even if he does look a lot better and score a 50 or so this week his price will only go up about $10K. If you’re considering him it wouldn’t be a terrible idea to let him have one price rise, just to see how he’s looking and then maybe bring him in.

Matthew Lobbe – Port Adelaide ($94,500, RUC/FWD, Break even: 14)

First two games: 28 vs. St.Kilda (W), 28 vs. Adelaide (W) = 28 avg.

He’s consistent. With two scores of 28, I’ll give him that. He’s a candidate to get games on a rather inconsistent basis to back up Brogan, but Trengove and Cloke are also lurking around that second ruck spot, plus Choco will let Brogan go it alone every now and then with support from the third worst Westhoff. As it was, he was only a late in last week against Adelaide.
He’ll get games, but how many is a big question mark. I wouldn’t be advising you downgrade Warnock to get him in just to grab a bit of cash, because I see Warnock as the one more likely to be playing games when you need him (even though he was in the VFL last week). Rookie rucks aren’t cash cows, so I’m not a fan of trading them in (and as a forward there are much better options). He’s a good one to sit around on your bench if you’ve already got him though.

Jarrad Grant – Western Bulldogs ($96,700, FWD, Break even: -77)

First two games: 58 vs. Adelaide (W), 92 vs. St.Kilda (L) = 75 avg.

The #5 draft pick from 2007 spent most of his first few years in the VFL, but some good early form this year has seen him get his chance. His 2009 debut showed that he was a fair way off it, but he’s looked much more comfortable in his two games so far in 2010.

I worry that there’s a lot of pressure for spots at the Bulldogs so it won’t take much for him to get dropped, but while he’s performing as well as he has been there is definitely a spot for him. He’s a good option and might even be a slight point of difference for your team, but what’s with all these good cash cow options coming through in the forwards?!

Jordan Roughead – Western Bulldogs ($94,500, RUC, Break even: -33)

First two games: 64 vs. Adelaide (W), 39 vs. St.Kilda (L) = 51.5 avg.

It’s hard to consider trading him in with Will Minson lurking at Williamstown. Minson has been named fourth and second best in his two games at Willy, so while Roughead has looked great so far, you get the impression he’s just keeping Minson’s seat warm for now. Would be a massive job security risk to trade him in and you can also refer to my point above with Lobbe about rucks not being great cash cows anyway.