In an effort to improve our site, we’re looking at different ways to give our readers the best advice possible. From now on, my Player of the Week will have a slightly different take. Rather than looking at one player in great detail I’ll give a bit of a statistical analysis on a few guys who are ripe for the picking. I’ll also include an “On The Bubble” bit for all rookie priced players who have played two games. The idea of this is to make the articles more accessible and relevant to as many people as possible by throwing up more names.

Cyril Rioli

AFL Rd 2 - Hawks v Cats

There’s been a bit of talk about him on Footy Tragic this week. I must admit I had him in very early versions of my team this pre season, but I cooled on that idea pretty quickly when there was talk of him having OP. He missed Round 1 as a result, but all that has done is made him relatively unpopular in Dream Team.

I love him so much as a player. In fact, you’d be hard pressed to find anyone who doesn’t love Cyril – he embodies so much to love about footy. As a DT’er, he knows how to score. Tackles, goals and marks are all a part of his game. I was really amazed that he scored 71 DT points from only 10 touches in his first game of the season against Geelong. SEVEN points per disposal – this is what four marks and five tackles will do to a relatively quiet day on the disposal count. He followed it up with an impressive 130 (career high) against the Bulldogs, including four goals, six marks and six tackles head to head with one of the best small defenders in Jarrod Harbrow.

Now let’s not get ahead of ourselves, we can only project that Rioli has long term sustainable DT improvement in him for 2010. It’s not like picking a falling premium – we are genuinely looking for Cyril’s breakout year. Some might say, wasn’t that his rookie year in 2008? I say not, because when Cyril truly breaks out he will be one of the best players in the AFL.

Keep in mind that last week against the Bulldogs was only the sixth time in his 46 game career where he topped 20 disposals. However, as I pointed out above he can score points on a low disposal count and in general he looks set to improve his numbers this year if he can stay healthy. His tackling is insanely good and his closing speed is better than anyone’s in the AFL – it’s some effort to catch Ablett holding the ball twice in your career, let alone twice in the same game, which is what Cyril did in Round 2.

Jared Brennan

It’s pretty convenient that there’s two guys under $400K who look set for big years, have only played two games and are set to go up in price the week the most common premium forward goes down with a DT season ending injury.

Not that this site is used for commentary on MRP decisions, but for those who don’t already own Brennan his incredibly soft and slightly confusing suspension was a blessing in disguise, just as Riewoldt’s hammy goes bang (in a bad way).

The big question has to be, is one of the biggest DT teases over the past few years doing it again? Is he luring us in and bending us over like he has to many time and time again? I gotta say, I’m not so sure this time. This could finally be what we’ve been waiting for from Jared Brennan.

His move to the midfield opened up a DT gold mine last year. He did admittedly show a bit of inconsistency, and this may be the sort of thing that continues to plague him as a player, but the trend moved greatly towards the higher end of his scoring. Just as he was looking good last year, he headbutted Josh Carr and thousands of DT coaches were cursing, thinking that he’d be looking at 3-4 weeks at such an important time of year. Luckily he only got one, and to be fair heaps of people have wanted to headbutt Josh Carr.

His scores of 121 and 119 so far this season are only a small sample, but he finished off last season quite well too. His big strength as a DT’er is his ability to pull down massive mark and tackle numbers, but disappointingly doesn’t kick enough goals.

On The Bubble

Keep an eye on these cheapies, who have played two games and are about to go up in price…

Rohan Bail

The mature aged selection for Melbourne was off to a flyer in his debut game last year picking up a kick in the first minute, but in turn injuring himself (hammy IIRC). Three points per minute is pretty awesome though! That was his only game for 2009, but after a good pre-season he cracked the Dees side in Round 2, where he had the game on his boot in the dying seconds – unfortunately he decided to put it into Petterd’s hands.

A 67 and 87 is none too shabby for a young Melbourne midfielder and I honestly rate his job security a little better than Tom Scully’s at this stage. Slightly risky to bring him in if you already have Scully and Jack Trengove – three rookie Melbourne mids is fraught with danger, but I don’t reckon Bail is too bad of a pick at $101K and a break even of roughly -80.

Brodie Moles

Another mature aged selection (we love them for DT) who had a cracking season in the Bulldogs midfield after spending two years on Geelong’s rookie list. A beautiful kick of the ball and once they get all the Geelong out of his system maybe he won’t handball so much and use that lovely right peg a bit more.

Job security will always be an issue at a contender like the Dogs, but with Picken out for 6-8 weeks that might help his cause a fair bit. Akermanis also to miss and only Johnson and Eagleton to come back in the short term means he should hold his spot for another few weeks. Priced at $83K and a break even score of roughly -84.

Ben Howlett

OK, so he’s not in my DT side, but I do have him in SC and when I saw his omission last week I went on a massive anti-Knights tirade. Some of that IS still left in my system and that may subtly come out as I write this paragraph.

I’ll just throw him in there, in case Essendon’s match committee opt not to smoke crack at the table this week and actually put him back in. I’m not thinking it’s likely though, after a good win against the Blues and Michael Hurley a lock to come back in. For the record, their wholesale changes were obviously a good idea, but dropping Howlett was crazy. Especially to bring up Bachar Houli and once again prove he has no clue.

I must admit I thought he did enough to ensure solid job security in a fairly average midfield. Scores of 74 and 63 is what you can expect from him if he comes back in, but he’s probably more relevant to people who already own him. Probably a bit too risky to trade him in after being unexpectedly dropped…

Relton Roberts

GOD NO! I have him and can’t wait to get rid of him. I hope he is named this week just so I can get a minor price rise out of him before trading him to Rockliff, but he is so far off AFL tempo that I can’t guarantee he will make his break even this week even if he does play. His break even is 1, by the way. ONE point.
Won’t be surprised if he is dropped after two very mediocre performances. Admittedly playing as a small forward for a team that can’t get the ball into their attacking half of the ground is not conducive to DT scoring.