So as I was explaining last week, this article will look at players that are set to go bang. Generally I’ll have a look a couple of falling premiums, maybe try and explain why their scoring has been below par, find some stats to indicate they’re on the way back up etc. However, I’m also committed to using this article to write a brief description of all rookie priced players who are on the verge of their first price rise. 

This week there are SEVEN players on the bubble, so forgive me for not writing about a premium this week, I’ve got seven rookies to write about so there’s plenty of reading material for you to go on with. FWIW, Dean Cox is the most intriguing premium. He’ll still be relevant to write about next week, but his break even this week of 106 this week is actually achievable, so this could be as cheap as Cox will be this season. Pending a good game this week I’ll be taking a very close look at him next week when there are far less rookies about to soar in price…  
 

Chris Schmidt – Adelaide ($94,500 DEF, Break even: -71) 

First two games: 81 vs. Melbourne (L), 60 vs. Carlton (L) = 70.5 avg. 

The rookie listed Crow hasn’t been too bad in his first couple of games. To be “not too bad” is basically like being in the Top 5 at the Crows the way they’re going this year. His spot in the team should be pretty safe for a few weeks with so many Crows playing so badly. For a rookie back his scoring potential isn’t really a problem, he fits the bill there, but long term I’d be more worried about his job security, which as I mentioned seems pretty solid for now. He’s not a super kick of the ball, so as the Crows start getting guys back from injury I wonder if his kicking will come under the microscope from match committee. Mind you, that’s more of a general comment about his game – his kicking has been fine in his two games so far. 

Tom Rockliff – Brisbane ($101,100 FWD, Break even: -91) 

First two games: 87 vs. Port (W), 78 vs. Bulldogs (W) = 82.5 avg 

My love for him is well and truly on the record. I love the way he’s been able to find space on the wing so far in his first two games of the season. For a bloke who was always knocked for having poor fitness, he’s working pretty damn hard. It’s obviously been a big improvement in his game. He’s a very smart footballer with the capability of racking up good numbers. Job security could be an issue down the track, but with his current form he demands selection and will make good money quickly. If the Lions have a few more guys pushing into their midfield, Rockliff could keep his spot in the team as a forward too. 

Kane Lucas – Carlton ($113,500 MID, Break even: -77) 

AFL Rd 4 - Crows v Blues

First two games: 67 vs. Essendon (L), 93 vs. Adelaide (W) = 80 avg. 

He managed good numbers in his first game against Essendon, but didn’t really look that good IMO. A much better performance against admittedly pedestrian opposition last week and he almost snagged a ton! He’s a little pricier than most of midfield rookies at $113K. I’m a bit of a fan of his and honestly there’s nothing intuitive about this next comment, but I just kind of get the feeling he might take a little bit of time to consistently be a good scorer at AFL level. It’s more of a hunch than anything, but if your hunch makes you think the other way, then good luck. 

Travis Colyer – Essendon ($89,500 MID, Break even: -75) 

First two games: 68 vs. Carlton (W), 73 vs. West Coast (L) = 70.5 avg. 

Pacy outside player with a reasonably one way game and questionable kicking skills – sounds like someone Knights would play. That sounds a lot harsher on Colyer than it’s really meant to, because I’ve enjoyed his first two games I quite liked his form for WA in the U/18 Nationals last year. The major worry I have is that Knights seems to be a coach that likes to give players a taste at the top level and then drop them to Bendigo (Pears, Myers in 08, Zaharakis in 09, Howlett this year). Consider his stint in the seniors a bit of an experiment and I’d be surprised if he wasn’t back to the VFL in a few weeks after gaining some valuable experience. 

Jake Melksham – Essendon ($121,500 MID, Break even: -27) 

First two games: 57 vs. Carlton (W), 59 vs. West Coast (L) = 58 avg. 

Like his similarly small framed teammate, job security will be a risk with any Essendon youngster that isn’t a freak of nature (see: Hurley). Melksham is a naturally inside player and he has remarkable poise for someone of his age. He’s just one of those players who always seems to have more time than you think, but isn’t necessarily quick (reminds me a bit of Pendlebury in that regard). However, with a small frame and an inside game I’d only be expecting him to play another 4-5 consecutive games at most. He’s a player I rate very highly, but I’m currently drafting a personal rule where I don’t take Essendon rookies. I’ll be watching the case study of Colyer and Melksham very closely after the unwarranted demotion of Howlett. 

James Podsiadly – Geelong ($77,800 FWD, Break even: -143) 

First two games: 85 vs. Freo (L), 115 vs. Port (W) = 100 avg. 

Seriously, who doesn’t love this guy?! There’s something incredibly endearing about a guy that he made his debut at such a late age he’s actually starting to sprout a couple of grey hairs. And how has his form been? He’s kicked eight goals in his first two games and has been in better form than Mooney and Hawkins. Those who were sold on a downgrade to Rockliff this week have to be asking a few questions of themselves now. J-Pod (yep, I’m not ashamed to use such a lame nickname) is about $25K cheaper, has similar top end scoring potential and similar job security. Like Rocky if he keeps up this form he simply can’t be dropped. With their expected price booms it makes sense to trade in the forwards this week with Hitchcock and Gumbleton pretty close to maxed out on price and Roberts a total spud. Rocky vs. J-Pod will be a huge decision for many coaches this week. 

Ben Stratton – Hawthorn ($89,500 DEF, Break even: -37) 

First two games: 62 vs. Bulldogs (L), 41 vs. Collingwood (L) = 51.5 avg. 

Out of all the guys ‘on the bubble’ that I’ve spoken about I rate Stratton’s job security the best, especially with Josh Gibson out for so long at Hawthorn. The 21 year old originally from East Perth is not a huge ball winner though. So you’re more looking at a guy with a fairly safe spot in the team, but more of an emergency type for your team. He’s not going to be one you rely on for big scores, but every now and then might bust out a 70 or so to pump up his price. If you missed on Maguire at the start of the year, I think Stratton is a pretty decent alternative before his price rises. 

I would also like to thank Grimlock and FF Genie for the break even numbers. Don’t know what FF Genie is? Check out www.freewebs.com/ffgenie – top quality program!