Paul Duffield – Fremantle ($363,300, BAC, Break even: 86, price drop this season: $29,400)

Duffy can be a bit of a roller coaster, but I feel he is a real bargain at the moment. With so many worries regarding popular DT backs, I can see a few trades being made in back lines this week. There’s talk of Maguire being hurt, Davis got hit by “125kg of tree” in the immortal words of David “Ox” Schwarz and some may be holding onto Kennelly, Silvagni and Hargrave, who are no guarantee of a return.

What you will notice about Duffield, is that he is one of the biggest scorers in spurts. What I mean by that, is that you’re sitting there looking at live scores and Duffy hasn’t done anything for 15 minutes. You start thinking maybe he’s injured or something and then all of a sudden he’ll rack up 18 points in two minutes. It can get frustrating, but the end result usually means he’s averaging 90 this year (after averaging 89 last year).

This is where the highs and lows come into it. If he doesn’t manage too many of these scoring spurts in a game then he is liable to score the odd 70 (he’s had three sub 70′s this year and had five in 2009). However, if he’s a bit up in this regard then he has the ability to score big tons. He cracked 120 three times last year and already has one score of 135 this year, plus three more tons. You take the good with the bad and at the end of the day, you can feel pretty safe that he’ll get a 90 average, generally with a basement of 60ish, but capable of massive tons.

Jack Grimes – Melbourne ($326,600, BAC, Break even: 101, price drop this season: $65,700)

MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - APRIL 03: Jack Grimes of the Demons kicks during the round two AFL match between the Collingwood Magpies and the Melbourne Demons at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on April 3, 2010 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

For a slightly more budget model of Duffield, have a look at one of everyone’s favourites from 2009, Jack Grimes. There’s generally a bit of a trend where popular rookies from the previous year find their way into a mass of teams the next year, possibly due to some sort of sentimentality. That doesn’t seem to have happened with Grimes this year. He’s only in 16,408 teams and is priced very reasonably.

He started the season with remarkable consistency. In the first four weeks his lowest score was 81 and his highest was 94. After that we started to see a bit more of a roller coaster with 58, 128, 79 and 112. His last three weeks haven’t been great, averaging 67 over that period, but he’s shown to also have a basement score of about 60. His lowest score is 57 and it’s really hard to picture his scoring lower than that in a game (mid game injury permitting).

Grimes is already one of the more mature football brains on the Demons team in only his third year on the list. He knows the right spots and will get plenty of cheap stuff through across half back and when moved into the midfield he’s more than capable of winning his own ball. If the news is bad on Maguire, then it’s only $40K to upgrade to Grimes. Even though he’s got a break even of 101, your situation may require immediate action, and furthermore Grimes is a chance to get that, so I’d look closely at him.

Shane Mumford – Sydney ($324,900, RUC, Break even: 17, price RISE this season: $82,000)* NOTE: I normally have guys that have dropped in price, Mumford is still looking like a bargain though…

I will preface this by saying that if you have no cover for Hille and you’ve decided to move him on and thank him for the memories, Dean Cox is an obvious option. I did already write about him a few weeks ago, so I won’t waste the column space, but Cox is putting along nicely and as NicNat is tiring a bit, Cox should be good to go in the run home and a Cox to Hille trade will only cost $7K. Gold, considering that trade was my loose plan at the start of the year.

However, if you’re looking for someone a bit cheaper, it’s worth putting the microscope on Shane Mumford’s recent form. First of all, he’s been greatly advantaged by Mark Seaby’s injury, handing him the #1 role. Since Seaby’s injury Mumford has scored 94, 113 and 114 (he also missed two weeks through suspension in this time).

The big advantage with Mumford is that even if he isn’t playing that well he’s a tackling machine (just ask Gary Ablett). He’s had 40 tackles in nine games this year, including 20 in his last three (where he has had a lot more TOG due to Seaby being out). What I like about this is that it indicates he doesn’t need to be playing particularly well to put points on the board.

He’s been filling a few other columns though, but do be wary that his last two games have been against Hawthorn and Essendon, who notoriously leak points to ruckmen. Don’t just take his past two scores on face value and consider that his opposition have been conducive to high scoring for a ruckman.

Jonathan Brown – Brisbane ($305,500, FWD, Break even: 41, price drop this season: $110,300)

It’s weird seeing forwards not traditionally associated with DT like Mitch Hahn, Tom Hawkins and Kyle Reimers priced higher than Browny, but that’s how it is right now. Some rotten form, no doubt injury related has restricted the great man this season.

He started like a house on fire with 138 and 141 in the first two rounds. I’m sure many people brought him in for Nick Riewoldt after Round 3, only to be served a fair bit of tripe since then. He has managed four scores in the 90′s since then, but no tons. It’s a little bit worrying that his ceiling seems to be set so low. When he stinks, he stinks. If he’s not scoring 90′s, he’s scored 37, 38 and 52 (also an 87).

His last couple of weeks have seen some semblance of form though. He is, no doubt, an injury risk. If Brisbane’s season continues to head south (I mean south in the context of the ladder, because obviously they’re heading south whenever they’re not playing at home) I would be very surprised if they don’t put him in for an early surgery. There’s all sorts of rumours flying around about how badly hurt he is playing, so more than anything this is a cautionary tale. I think Brown is great value and while he’s on the park, while you might have a few down games with him, at a shade over $300K you won’t find a better buy. But buyer beware! You’d want to hope Brisbane stay in the finals race this year…

Dawson Simpson – Geelong ($94,500, RUC, Break even: -16)

First two games: 56 vs. Freo (L), 31 vs. West Coast (W) = 43.5 avg.

NOTE: His first two games were in Rounds 3 and 11.

With news of Tom Hawkins developing a hot spot in his foot, Simpson could be in line to keep his spot in the team for a little while. Brad Ottens is listed as 2-3 weeks away (but wasn’t he listed as that for all of 2009?) and who knows how long Hawkins could be?

Big Daws (and I mean real big, he’s 206cm) won’t score too well. He doesn’t provide much around the ground just yet. I like his future but it might take him a while to really get there at AFL level. Furthermore, I’ve seen Geelong VFL play a couple of times this year and I wouldn’t write Trent West off from getting a couple of games to back up Mark Blake.

Jordan Gysberts – Melbourne ($117,500, MID, Break even: -92)

First two games: 103 vs. Geelong (L), 78 vs. Carlton (L) = 90.5 avg.

Is he our last great hope? When I look at the rookies yet to debut, there is not a whole heap screaming immediate impact to me, so that might make downgrade options tough to come by late in the year. Gysberts has been very impressive in his first two games against arguably the two best midfields in the league.

He’s got a good inside game and hopefully coming into the side late will mean he won’t need a rest. However, his spot wouldn’t be locked from what I see. If he had a bad game or two, he’s got the similarly inside Jordie McKenzie breathing down his neck. I think he has good job security, but put it this way, I’d be slightly uneasy in the run home with a mid bench of Gysberts and one of Howlett/Moles/Shuey.

Gysberts would be a great money maker if you’re able to keep someone like Jetta/Banfield/Martin/Trengove/Scully as your 7th mid. I’m not saying he won’t play the full season out, but I just think we should put his first two games into perspective and not lock him in for the rest of the season (Beau Muston 2009, anyone?)