Once again, there’s so many guys on the bubble, but this week I’ll do a quick analysis on some falling premiums. I don’t want to paint one side of the picture without the other…but I’ll keep it kind of brief, let’s face it, this is taking me ages to write.

Dean Cox – West Coast ($377,700 RUC, Break even: 78, price drop this season: $93,800)

Cox has started horrendously slow this season, which is most unlike him. Typically Dean Cox has two types of scores – big ones, or 0′s because he is not playing. Luckily for those of us who didn’t start him this year he started the season with 52, 45 and 73, dropping his price right down and his break even way up. Even with his last two games being 99 and 102 he’s still been going down in price.

How good is that? We get to see him back in full form while his price continues to plummet. Anyway, his price will be on the way back up now and I’ll be extremely surprised if he gets cheaper than this in 2010.

AFL Rd 4 - Eagles v Bombers


For those who planned on trading him in for your mid priced ruckman now is the time to get rid of a Seaby, Naitanui or Ottens – they’ve done their job for now and for the first time ever it’s accessible to trade a $250K ruckman for Cox if you’ve got a little bit of cash. Those with Hille (like me) might have a tougher decision this week. Hille has had a 114 and 87 over the last two weeks, so has scored the exact same as Cox. Hille only has a break even of 16 this week, so maybe you could wait another week…or do you even bank on Hille being a potential keeper? Can opened, worms everywhere. Would love some discussion on this predicament…

One thing to consider with Cox for this week is that he is playing against Sandilands. Even though I expect Cox to get his break even, Sandilands will be much tougher opposition than anyone else he’ll face. The week after, however, Cox is up against Hawthorn, who’s ruck stocks range from Brent Renouf to an inanimate carbon rod. He could potentially be restricted a bit this week, but next week he could score, like 730 DT points.

Alan Didak – Collingwood ($388,600 MID/FWD Break even: 92, price drop this season: $62,700)

The thing I’m loving about Didak this year is that he’s only had one really ordinary game (52) and a couple of consecutive 80′s to bring his price down. In the past goals have really assisted his DT scoring, but this year he’s been playing a more exclusive midfield role. He’s still able to bob up for a goal here or there, but he’s looking very much like a player than can pull down tons, whether or not he’s getting goals. I see his goals now as more of a bonus than an important element of his scoring potential.

His next three games are against Carlton, North and Freo. Carlton haven’t been too bad at restricting him in the past, but he did get a 96 against them last year and a 95 in 2008 (he did also have a 44 in a separate encounter in 08). I think his form is hot enough to make him a big chance for a great score this week. He didn’t play against North last year, but I can see him cutting them up and he scored 116 and 77 against them in 08. I’m sure Didak owners remember his 156 against Freo from last year very fondly too.

His big price drop makes it look like he’s been a lot worse than he has been. His form hasn’t been too bad at all and I reckon he’s just about to hit a good patch. Didak is a player that tends to kill it in a big way over a few weeks, for example last year he had a five week run where his lowest score was 121.

Phil Davis – Adelaide ($94,500 BAC/FWD, Break even: -70)

First two games: 69 vs. Carlton (L), 71 vs. Western Bulldogs (L) = 70 avg.

I’ve really like the start to Phil Davis’ AFL career. After a very disappointing NAB Cup, I didn’t think he’d be one to consider this year, but he looks a completely different player. I thought he was one of Adelaide’s best on Friday night (which puts him in a category slightly above handicapped). He finds plenty of space in the back half and Adelaide aren’t afraid to chip it around, resulting in a lot of +6′s. Not a bad option if you need a back or a forward, but be wary of his job security in the long term. He seems like someone who is great when things are going his way, but completely anonymous when it’s not going well for him. With Bock and Stevens to come back in, he’s done enough to hold his spot for now, but a bad game could see him go back to the SANFL.

Simon White – Carlton ($77,800 BAC, Break even: -74)

First two games: 74 vs. Adelaide (W), 58 vs. Geelong (W) = 66 avg.

Once again, someone who’s job security I wasn’t sold on, but with Andrew Walker going down it slightly improves his spot in the team. Keep in mind that his debut game coincided with the week Thornton and Waite got dropped though, so if Ratten goes for his more experienced players then White could be on the chopping block. They’ve also got Paul Bower to come back into their defence. He scores well enough and his first two games have been promising enough. I really liked his NAB Cup too and was one I had my eye on hoping he was named Round 1. As I mentioned last week, I’m very skeptical of young kids under Ratten – he loves giving them a taste and sending them back to VFL.

Ben Howlett – Essendon ($77,800 MID, Break even: -79)

First two games: 74 vs. Geelong (L), 63 vs. Fremantle (L) = 68.5 avg. (note: these games were Rounds 1 and 2)

I just want to mention Howlett because even though he hasn’t played since Round 2, I anticipate that his third game will be this week. He was unlucky to be dropped in the first place, Essendon were deadest embarrassed on ANZAC Day, so will ring the changes (plus Reimers and Pears will be two forced outs). Obviously job security is pretty bad, but if you’re already holding him, rejoice if he gets named and hopefully he can hold his spot. Doesn’t seem to be considered best 22 by his coach, so I wouldn’t be trading him in, but I do quite like him.

Jarrod Kayler-Thompson – Hawthorn ($77,800 MID, Break even: -108)

First two games: 65 vs. Melbourne (W), 101 vs. North Melbourne (W) = 83 avg. (note: these games were Round 1 and 5)

No doubts about his scoring potential and he’s mature aged, which we all love. But his job security is a big concern. There will be a revolving door on Hawthorn’s last 3-4 spots in their 22 and JKT is very much a part of that rotation. With so many players to come back from injury I don’t think he’ll feature enough (or at least consistently enough) for DT. It’s a real shame because he’s a cracking scorer. You’ll be able to make a quick buck off him if he’s named for a couple of games in a row, but he was first named in Round 1 and then didn’t play until he was a very late in just last week. I’m not advising against him necessarily, but if you’re picking him I’d be expecting him to be there for a good time, not a long time.

David Astbury – Richmond ($89,500 FWD, Break even: -6)

First two games: 51 vs. Melbourne (L), 22 vs. Fremantle (L) = 36.5 avg.

A lot of hype after his first game, but was practically invisible last week. I’ll pass…

Matthew Dea – Richmond ($89,500 FWD, Break even: -35)

First two games: 30 vs. Melbourne (L), 72 vs. Fremantle (L) = 51 avg.

He has a trait that Richmond are obviously massive fans of – poor kicking. His scoring pattern is pretty much a reverse of Astbury’s – invisible in his first game, but got a bit of it in his second. Even if he does hold his spot, I can’t see him getting too many points on a team that rarely has the ball. He’s a very late convert to footy too (basketball background, only played a handful of TAC Cup games) so I think this year will be a development year for him and that’ll be best done in the VFL.

Troy Taylor – Richmond ($89,500 FWD, Break even: 4)

First two games: 46 vs. Melbourne (L), 17 vs. Fremantle (L) = 31.5 avg.

I’m really sorry that I recommended him in the pre-season and hope that no one got excited when he was named to debut two weeks ago. Avoid. Copped a knock on his knee late in the game last week, but if fit I don’t think he’ll even be picked to play.

Ashton Hams – West Coast ($77,800 DEF, Break even: -58)

First two games: 48 vs. Essendon (W), 68 vs. Sydney (L) = 58 avg.

The mature aged rookie listed player from West Coast looks pretty safe to me. He’s very versatile, so that’s something that will help him keep his spot in the team, but for the moment he compliments Mark LeCras as a small forward really well. His versatility was a hallmark of his WAFL career and it seems like that will carry over into the AFL. I like his job security and reckon he’s going to be a pretty solid point scorer around the mid 50′s to mid 60′s in average. He could provide either good bench coverage for those that may have missed out on someone like Maguire, or could be used as a cash cow.