Footy Tragic
Bubble, bubble toil and trouble
We apologise for the delay in posting this morning’s article. There were some technical difficulties.
PLAYERS ON THE BUBBLE
Tony Armstrong – Adelaide ($94,500, MID, Break even: -88)
First two games: 36 vs. Fremantle (L)*, 123 vs. North (L) = 79.5 avg. *Note: his first game was Round 1 and was dropped after that.
Don’t be fooled by his shiny 123 last week. Armstrong has very low job security and Saturday night was the sort of game where a lot of cheap stuff was going around. Did you notice the names of Adelaide’s Top 6 scorers? They were mainly defenders getting a lot of cheap marks for the most part. Adelaide has a long injury list, which we assume will get shorter at some stage (not that it’s showing signs of doing that). Knights, Mackay and Symes sound pretty close to a return though and Rory Sloane is back playing SANFL (and is much better than Armstrong).
Armstrong had 13 marks to his name. I will be surprised if he has that many for the rest of the season, to be perfectly honest. I don’t really rate him as a player (poor decision making, limited hurt factor) and Neil Craig seems to have a “last man in, first man out” selection policy, so even though he had a good game he’d be pretty close to getting dropped in a couple of weeks, in my opinion. Obviously he’s set to make a quick buck, but only expect him to be there for a good time, not a long time. For what it’s worth, the last player I used that phrase on was Jarrod Kayler-Thomson…
Danny Hughes – Melbourne ($94,500, FWD, Break even: -66)
First two games: 63 vs. Bulldogs (L), 74 vs. West Coast (L) = 68.5 avg.
I missed Melbourne’s game against last week, but he really impressed me in the wet against the Bulldogs a couple of weeks ago. He’s a strong marking player and while his form for Casey hadn’t been fantastic, I thought there were a couple of things in his game that looked good.
His work rate is pretty good and given limited competition for key spots in the Melbourne forward line, he should be good to go to make a bit of cash. At this stage though, you pretty much want your guys to be able to play the season out. Is Hughes that safe? I wouldn’t put my house on it, but with Petterd out for the year he’s some chance. Jurrah will come back at some stage and maybe they wheel out Brad Miller again, but for the most part the job is Hughes’ to lose and he’s done well to date. Not a bad downgrade option.
Jeromey Webberley – Richmond ($89,500, DEF, Break even: -45)
First two games: 61 vs. Adelaide (L), 52 vs. Hawthorn (almost W) = 56.5 avg.
Some have been waiting for this guy for some time. I know that he was hovering around a few Dream Teams in the planning stages of 2010, but it took him a while to crack the formidable Richmond line up.
Richmond are the lowest scoring team in the league for DT points, but that’s not near as important with the rookies. Webberley looks very secure in his job and will score pretty well for a bench player, so he’s an ideal downgrade option at this time of year. His debut game was 17 touches at 100% efficiency…that sounds very un-Richmond like, but it’d be a welcome change that should see him stick around in their 22.
Gary Rohan – Sydney ($137,500, FWD/MID, Break even: 12)
First two games: 40 vs. Geelong (L), 52 vs. Bulldogs (L) = 46 avg.
Rohan is an absolute jet and easily the most exciting player to watch out of last year’s draft. However, he is NOT a DT’er! He’s a great impact player, but while he’s learning his trade the Swans are using him as a defensive forward a fair bit. His tackling pressure down there is very valuable for them.
Rohan has never been a high possession winner, but when he gets the ball he can be so mesmerising, but don’t let that attract you to him. I’m not saying stay away completely, but I would be treading with extreme caution. The advantage is that he’s a dual position player, but he also comes at a pretty heavy price tag for a rookie.
Mike Pyke – Sydney ($128,500, RUC, Break even: 23)
First two games: 47 vs. Geelong (L), 27 vs. Bulldogs (L) = 37 avg.
If you are looking for a back-up ruckman wait and see how Wayde Skipper goes this week (even if he shows nothing or gets dropped it’s not like Pyke is going to bolt in price). Skipper would have better job security, scoring potential and is cheaper than the big Canuck.
Pyke might get games while Mumford and Seaby are out, but with Mumford due back next week they might not use Pyke as back up. Jesse White could do some part time work, or they might want to give Daniel Currie a shot. Avoid, even if you are solely looking for bench coverage.
Brad Sheppard – West Coast ($133,500, DEF, Break even: 1)
First two games: 35 vs. Hawthorn (W), 65 vs. Melbourne (W) = 50 avg.
I’m a big wrap for Sheppard and reckon he could make a good DT’er in years to come. As I said in the Hughes write-up, I missed the Melbourne vs. West Coast game on the weekend, but it seems as though Sheppard played much better than his debut game (where, to be fair, he did cop a knock in the head early).
I’m not sure that he’s worth the extra price tag with Webberley set to rise in the same week though. I think Webberley has better job security and scoring potential (well, for 2010 anyway) than Sheppard.
8 Comments on Bubble, bubble toil and trouble
I would have thought Armstrong is secure for at least a little while, especially given the Crows ‘making a statement’ and dropping three players.
Vince will be straight back in next week, whilst the likes of Knights, Sellar, Thompson and Mackay are returning from injury, possibly all this week. Then when Johncock is fit he’ll serve his week and be back in and Sloane is from all reports doing well in the reserves. Remeber Beau Muston last year? Could do the same but with only one good score.
Tony Armstrong impressed me in a NAB Challenge match against the Blues during the pre season and I’ve been monitoring him since. I like Armstrong’s creativity and run from defence.
I would have thought Neil Craig would be looking to give Armstrong plenty of chances in 2010 to show what he is capable of at AFL level.
While I’m not expecting Armstrong to knock up 100 plus on a regular basis, I believe he has been sold short.
Might want to rethink your thoughts on Vince, joker..
http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/94609/default.aspx
I have all but locked in Webberly for a downgrade, but who to cut: Silvagni or Nason?
I figure Nason has the better job security, but Silvagni is averaging more when he plays, is in a higher scoring team, and means I won’t have 2 richmond rookie backs. Any thoughts on this?
Personally i am thinking of offloading Nason… although i don’t have Silvagni. I think Nason has just about peaked, although Silvagni aint too far behind… Apples and Oranges i think!
Toby, what are your honest thoughts on Colin Sylvia at the moment. He was the one player i had eagerly looked forward to trading in since Round 1 commenced, being that he would’ve been a walk-up for my team if it weren’t for his broken jaw preseason.. however, thus far he has been very underwhelming as you know.
Don’t get me wrong, i have no urge to trade him out whatsoever, i guess this is just a bit of a vent to express my disappointment as i really thought he had taken his game to a new level in 09 and want so much for him to start replicating that again this year!
I really don’t want to see him turn into a Neon Leon, Hargrave-type – One breakout year and then fade away into obscurity.. that would be bitterly disappointing.
As much as i hope he really starts to turn his form around in the next few weeks, the only other thing that bothers me is that he will be cheap as cheaps by that time and people will be all over him!
Talk about wanting my cake and eating it too! hehe
speaking of the Demons, early word is that Danny Hughes will be dropped, along with Cam Bruce, Matty Bate and Paul Johnson. The ins will consist of Joel Macdonald, Austin Wonnamirri, Nevill Jetta, Paul Miller and Cale Morton.
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