Steve Johnson – Geelong (FWD, $381,400, Break even: 19, price drop this year: $55,500)

AFL Rd 3 - Dockers v Cats

So Jared Brennan owners will be looking for a replacement (who, by the way, turned out to be teasing us once again!). Well, if you initially took the risk on the roller coaster ride of Brennan, you’re probably the sort of DT’er who wouldn’t have a huge beef with the similarly up and down Steve Johnson.

Stevie J has looked fantastic in his past two weeks. Granted, they were against the teams he scores first and third highest against. Also, they were both at Skilled Stadium, which is a ground he notoriously slays. However, he has been moving a lot more freely, which is the most important thing as far as I’m concerned.

His break even is only 19, so he’s definitely on the way up. Well, I say definitely, but it’s buyer beware with Stevie J, because when he stinks, he really bloody stinks. Last year he scored a 35 and a 62, plus three annoying scores in the 70s. Hopefully his sub 70 scores are out of the way, as he already has a 35 and a 69 this year.

One thing to note, however, is that he hasn’t scored a ton away from Skilled Stadium in 2010. In fact, all three games Geelong have played at Skilled have resulted in three tons and all four games away from Skilled have been less than a ton. While he’s a Skilled Stadium specialist, I wouldn’t expect his form to remain exclusive to that ground.

On the bubble

Matthew Jaensch – Adelaide (FWD, $77,800, Break even: -48)

First two games: 68 vs. Port Adelaide (L), 38 vs. Richmond (L…wait, I mean W…force of habit)

Jaensch came to Adelaide as a mature aged recruit from Sturt, as a reasonably accomplished SANFL player. He’s a fantastic kick of the ball and is best used across half forward, or maybe on the wing. But what we know about Neil Craig is that he loves playing players out of position (see: Walker, Taylor).

His 38 against Richmond was playing in a lock down role on Nason in the back pocket, which is pretty yuck for DT scoring. If Craig persists with him, he could be a good scorer, but with an injury list you would expect to one day get shorter his job security might not be great. I don’t think he’s a bad option if he can get another game this week, but if you’re desperate for a forward rookie I’d have to wonder why you didn’t jump on Fyfe or Grant last week – there’s not been a shortage of forward rookies lately.

Dylan Roberton – Fremantle (DEF, $89,500, Break even: -29)

First two games: 57 vs. West Coast (W), 39 vs. Brisbane (W)

First up, I’ve gotta be honest and say I haven’t seen Freo over the last two weeks, so I haven’t seen Roberton in action at AFL level yet, but he’s a very good kick of the ball coming out of the backline, so in time he could be one to keep an eye on.

For this year, he could also be not such a bad option. Nason, Silvagni, Hunt and Maguire are popular options who have either maxed out, or are close to doing so. The attractiveness with all of them (except maybe Silvagni when Grover comes back) is that they’ve got a pretty secure job, so provide great back up for your team. Roberton might not be there yet, but Harvey isn’t afraid to play the kids, which is a plus. He’s quite skinny though, so it’ll be tough to see him play out the season – just note that I said the same thing about Stephen Hill last year and was horribly wrong.

Lewis Stevenson – West Coast (MID, $94,500, Break even: -65)

First two games: 56 vs. Sydney (L), 79 vs. Hawthorn (W)

Another good kick of the pill is on the bubble this week. Stevenson had a pretty good debut against Sydney, but was dropped the next week unfortunately. After a week off he was back in and scored a 79, including eight marks and looked comfortable in the AFL.

I’m a little bit worried about the midfield downgrade options in the coming weeks, so if you need a bit of cash for a rookie who has maxed out, I don’t mind Stevenson. West Coast are pushing games onto their kids this year and hopefully Stevenson is a part of that. He’s been on their rookie list since 2008 and has improved fantastically, especially in the early parts of 2010.