Footy Tragic

33 Comments on Ultimate Footy Category – Footy Tragic’s Top 200 Rankings

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  By UYclub on February 17th, 2013 at 10:21:32

  Thanks Dan. Just a small typo noticed, 48. Brad Ebert is now at PA not WC.
  Doesn’t change the excellent stats presented.

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  By Dan on February 17th, 2013 at 11:36:35

  Thanks mate, I fixed that. Old habits…

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  By BiggieBigshot on February 17th, 2013 at 12:36:25

  Great work Dan thanks for the run down. If we go with the ‘scoring category(cat) tactic’ you outline, one might wonder if you best aim at accurate scorers and try to ice the other % score cat? Alla Watson lets say? Thoughts?

  Further for the keeper leagues the age of the player seems incredibly important, LOVE to see an article on player age for those who are in keeper leagues Dan. Pure platinum!

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  By 3rdmonkey on February 17th, 2013 at 15:50:39

  I think a player’s age for keeper leagues will really depend on how many you get to keep each year. If it’s only 8 that you’re keeping then I don’t think players’ ages really matter that much.

  Look at DT for example, barring a select few (Goddard, Cox, Swan, Ablett, Buddy etc) the players up the top of each position’s ranking changes from year to year. That’d mean the guys you want to keep will change from year to year, plus you’ve gotta then decide how many (if any) rookies you want to keep in those 8 players – predicting a guy who’ll consistently become one of the best few in his position in advance will be quite a bit of guesswork.

  If your league is keeping 12-15 then it becomes a bit more important, as that’s then about half your squad & 60-80% of your starting 18. Opportunity to put some groundwork into setting up a bit of a dynasty, haha.

  Also, for keeper leagues you’d want to be aware of positional changes going forward. For example, you may pick Goddard this year with your first pick. You may rightly reason that he will end up as the #1 defender this year. However, given his clear midfield role with Essendon, he will probably never be defense-eligible again after 2013. Thus someone you thought may have been one of your ‘keepers’ for next year, now becomes just another good midfielder. Food for thought.

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  By Dan on February 17th, 2013 at 16:21:29

  Yep, naturally gun 1st-3rd year players will have higher draft value in keeper leagues. Conversely, you might find older players sliding a little bit more than in year to year leagues.

  Even if you’re keeping eight players I’d still go after young guns that you can be confident will become elite scorers, like Jaeger O’Meara, Jack Viney, Mitch Wallis and Joe Daniher. When you get to the eighth round of a 10-12 team league you’re talking about projecting someone you pick at 80-100 as a keeper – you might find there’s more upside with a young gun that is maybe a few years away from being an elite scorer.

  I’m not going to do specific rankings for keeper leagues because every league will have different rules. Some will have five keepers, some might have a dozen. Some leagues might even have specific rules where you can keep x amount of players, but y amount of “rookies.”

  3rdmonkey, great point about keeping positional changes in mind and Goddard would be the best example of that.

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  By 3rdmonkey on February 19th, 2013 at 01:17:42

  Interesting to see your rankings guys (or is it just Dan?). Mine are similar so far, though there are a few here that I’ve got much lower and a few that I have high that aren’t on this list. I guess that’s what makes it all so interesting eh? Everyone will come away thinking they’ve got the best team on paper, until round 1 anyway :)

  One player I had a bit lower than your 7th was Buddy Franklin. He’s arguably the highest scorer, but because of that his inaccuracy will go a long way towards costing you the goal-kicking accuracy at the same time. He’s also up around the top for free kicks against. That’s 1 category that he wins you, 1 that he loses you & 1 that he’s one of the worst in. His kicks/marks/frees for are all solid too and so all up he’s still one of the higher guys on my list (out of all 700 or so), but I just didn’t have him up near #7. Seems too much of a liability in 2 categories to justify a player’s top selection.

  Thought I’d stimulate conversation anyway :)

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  By Dan on February 19th, 2013 at 13:00:33

  Good points on Buddy and definitely things I had considered (yeah, I am working solo on the rankings). The one category he wins you is one of the hardest to nail a player that will consistently put you in a winning position – so I put greater weight on his goal scoring, than the negatives of his accuracy and FA.

  I really contemplated putting Pav as the #1 forward, but I couldn’t quite justify at his age. I think it’s really important that a forward is very high due to position scarcity. In the end I decided that Buddy was the #1 forward, so he snuck in there for me.

  I’m looking forward to releasing the next batch, hopefully on Thursday and then another again over the weekend.

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  By joelyalexander on February 19th, 2013 at 18:22:18

  Hi all

  Long time reader (back to the old white webpage days), first time poster. This sort of analysis is pure gold… will definitely be one of my most used cheatsheets for draft night. Dan, any danger you can knock something similar up for points based scoring?

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  By 3rdmonkey on February 19th, 2013 at 19:29:47

  Yes Pav is also pretty good. Ticks a lot of boxes & generally plays every game. I guess Buddy has a few more years than Pav left, though Pav does tend to play more games than Buddy, haha.

  You get a lot of interesting results when you just look at one stat in isolation, some players up near the top that you just wouldn’t have thought of. As you say though, it’s good to find the guys near the top of a category who still score well across a range of things.

  It’s interesting how younger players fit into this order in keeper leagues too. First you have to work out who the best players are going to be in a few years from now, and then you have to time it right to bring them into your team without having to miss a top player who is still on the table.

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  By Dan on February 20th, 2013 at 12:04:34

  Wow, the old white webpage days! That’s a long time ago joely. Welcome aboard from a posting sense. I do aim to do a points version too, but that will be purely based on time available. For now, my focus is completing a Top 300-400 for category leagues.

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  By BiggieBigshot on February 22nd, 2013 at 00:26:55

  Great stuff. The keeper league had me imagining that we kept all that we picked and then you would invest in youth not just players for the year. I have really loved assembling my draft!

  Well someone must have read my mind Dan! Higgo delves into age: http://www.jockreynolds.com.au/2013/02/21/when-does-an-afl-player-peak-peter-higginbotham/

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  By Dan on February 22nd, 2013 at 11:59:04

  You can have formats like that Biggie. They’re called Dynasty leagues. A keeper league is where you’ll keep a certain percentage of your roster, as set by your league commissioner.

  Some good stats in there by Higgo once you get past him telling us how awesome he is.

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  By BiggieBigshot on February 23rd, 2013 at 12:40:41

  lol… higgo et al like to put a smile on your face as you read the pump up is purely for amusement. :)

  Thanks for the further thoughts and the top 100. Looking fwd to the draft & year.

  Dan what is your thinking on injured players? Draft Nicnat hope no OP and the alike and have a couple of ruck chips to trade so you have coverage anyway? So you might take Bellchambers Hale Minson or Jamar as back up?

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  By 3rdmonkey on February 23rd, 2013 at 15:37:37

  I was wondering that about NicNat too. Curious when to take him. Same with guys like Boomer Harvey – out for 6 weeks but definitely will slot in somewhere once he’s back.

  I notice Nick Lower hasn’t made the list yet either – curious where he will slot in, as he could really be anything this year.

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  By 3rdmonkey on February 23rd, 2013 at 17:00:25

  Just noticed that Pederson is the only DEF/RUCK in DT this year.

  Also noticed that Ultimate Footy have taken the rare step of removing the RUCK position from him, and making him a DEF/FWD. Looks like they’re assuming that the only purpose of a Dual Position player is that you can swap them directly with another D/P, which isn’t true.

  Anyway, thought I’d mention it :)

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  By Pillager on February 23rd, 2013 at 19:22:46

  Great work Dan, I appreciate the time you have taken to put this draft list together.

  There is so much to consider with each selection. I suppose after all of the best ‘all rounders’ are taken in the draft it is time to concentrate on a few specific categories with players that provide the POD for those categories.

  It’s time to do some of my own research for our keeper league!

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  By Birdcage on February 24th, 2013 at 21:46:46

  Thanks Dan, but i do have 1 question to ask you, whats the reasoning with putting Pat dangerfield in front of Scotty Thompson

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  By 3rdmonkey on February 24th, 2013 at 23:09:06

  @Birdcage – I’d guess it’s mostly because Danger if younger, therefore in theory has scope for further improvement on 2012 stats that Thompson probably doesn’t. Also though, Thompson gives away a lot of free kicks – the 2nd most of any regular player after Buddy Franklin, so that’s a decent negative that Danger doesn’t have.

  I’m sure Dan will correct me if I’m wrong :)

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  By Piesforpremiers on February 24th, 2013 at 23:14:06

  I am new to this website and also to the draft style of the game. I finished in the top 600 of DT last year and am looking for that point of difference and this website might just help me. The top 100 is an interesting read. Look forward to further articles. Nice work Dan.

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  By Piesforpremiers on February 24th, 2013 at 23:17:05

  I agree with you 3rdmonkey, Thompson age is catching up with him and Dangerfields best years are still ahead of him.

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  By Dan on February 25th, 2013 at 06:29:13

  Pillager, that’s right for the most part. With certain players you can target specific categories early on though. For example, goal kickers don’t put up enough disposals to warrant early selection, but it’s still worth getting one pretty early. Later on is when you can target specialist guys like Luke McPharlin, who is high in marks, but not much else.

  Birdcage, scoreboard impact was the big reason. Their stats are very similar, but Danger kicks a goal per game. As 3rdmonkey points out, Thompson’s FA are a negative that very slightly brings him down. I didn’t really consider age with those two, as I expect similar output from them this year and I would just rather Danger’s numbers. Boyd is a other who dropped a little because of his lack of goals.

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  By Dan on February 25th, 2013 at 06:30:58

  Oh, and 3rdmonkey Lower should be a good option. I might have one more Dogs mid to come in ahead of him though.

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  By BiggieBigshot on February 26th, 2013 at 01:24:34

  All/Dan …what do you think about this? It will be interesting to see who gets a game in the fwd line for the Eagles and it will have an impact on the Ultimate footy value of players such as: Darling, LeCras, Kennedy and Nickoski. In 2011 the last 3 all had good totals of goals but Darling in the mix might mean one or all drops down the scoring table affecting their drafting value? Additionally Collingwood players will also have a different scoring likelihood with Krakour back in the line up he may impact on guys like Elliot, Goldsack, Blair, Daisy and to a lesser extent Beams & Sidebottom? Is there any validity in these types of thoughts or more than likely trying to see the future through the murk.

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  By Dan on February 26th, 2013 at 12:26:34

  Definitely take team balance into consideration when drafting. As you say, LeCras and Nicoski change the dynamics of the WC forward line, so there are unpredictable elements there. You can certainly do your best to predict what will happen, but obviously there’s a bit more of a punt.

  Just like picking a player for a break out year based on factors with his AFL team, you can pick sliders based on the same principles.

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  By daniel000 on February 28th, 2013 at 12:26:15

  Hey guys, when do you think the next blog about the draft will be out?

  cheers!

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  By Footy Tragic on February 28th, 2013 at 18:51:46

  Saturday this list will be extended to Top 200.

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  By 3rdmonkey on March 2nd, 2013 at 08:54:11

  Great work again Dan! Fantastic analysis. Always curious to see how your rankings go against mine. You ticked off the last couple of my top 30 this week, was wondering how far they’d fall (and making me wonder if I’ve got them too high, haha).

  Where do you think Boomer Harvey would slot into this list if he wasn’t suspended for round 1-6? His all-round stats are pretty good, and his goal-kicking accuracy is unbelievable – he kicked 35.9 last year! And a lot of his shots would be from on the run.

  Pity Jake Stringer got injured last night, have been really looking forward to seeing him play. Hopefully it’s not too bad.

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  By Dan on March 3rd, 2013 at 11:44:13

  Who did you have in your Top 30 that I had outside 100? That’s a huge gap! I could just as easily have them too low. There’s a few players I was specifically harsh on because I expect a drop off.

  Boomer would’ve probably been around the 50 mark without his suspension.

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  By 3rdmonkey on March 3rd, 2013 at 15:34:54

  Haha, well they were top 30 from my statistical analysis but I suppose I would pick those 2 a lot lower than that, based on age, positional scarcity & history. One was Lower, based on his 2012 numbers, but you couldn’t possibly take him that high. The other was Waite, as he was decent all-round but got a lot of marks & free kicks, scored a fair amount per game & his accuracy was very good for a high scorer. Problem is, he’s now over 30 & you know he’ll get injured on a regular basis.

  Still, those were the reasons :)

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  By diehardrichmond on March 3rd, 2013 at 21:42:05

  Anthony Morabito any chance to be considered a supercoach option?

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  By BiggieBigshot on March 3rd, 2013 at 22:17:16

  yup with 3rd monkey here, great work again and will be a huge learning year for me. But ahvign said that I intend to play it hard. :) Really enjoy your numbers Dan i suspect many of the ultimate keepers will use them as a strong guide. I’d listed likely draft multiple options for my positions and where the emphasis will be also but really enjoying the analysis of all the data.

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  By Locker101 on March 7th, 2013 at 14:59:32

  Where did you get these values from?

  Dane Swan, for example, has different values than those above

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  By Dan on March 7th, 2013 at 19:04:45

  The numbers are home and away games only. Finals don’t count in fantasy so won’t include those numbers in this.